Zinhle Mthombothi
Modelling the effects of temperature change on the population dynamics of tsetse flies and trypanosomiasis disease transmissionFriday 2 June, 15:00, AIMS Main Lecture Hall
Abstract: Global temperatures have increased over the recent decade. This is expected to have an impact on vector-borne diseases, raising questions - such as, will the increased temperature result in changing disease prevalence? How will vector populations be affected in terms of their density and distribution? The aim of this project is to use mathematical techniques to better understand the relationship between climate variables, particularly temperature, tsetse fly survival and trypanosomiasis disease transmission. The main objective consists of developing models describing the impact of temperature on the survival dynamics of tsetse flies. These models will be analysed mathematically and numerically, and fitted to available data. The data to be fitted are time series of climate data and population parameter estimates for _Glossina pallidipes_, emanating from mark-release-recapture studies carried out on Antelope Island, Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. The calibrated tsetse models will be incorporated into SIR-type models for the transmission of trypanosomiasis, to assess the impact of temperature on the disease spread in both humans and livestock. The models will serve as the basis for predicting climate-driven simulations for future distribution of vectors, the disease and assessing changing risks, consequent on various climate change scenarios.
About: Zinhle Mthombothi is a student at SACEMA (Stellenbosch University) pursuing an MSc (Mathematical Sciences). Her thesis is titled "Modelling the effects of temperature change on the population dynamics of tsetse flies and trypanosomiasis transmission", supervised by Prof. John W. Hargrove and Dr. Rachid Ouifki. In 2015 she obtained a Structured Master’s degree in Mathematical Sciences at the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences South Africa (AIMS-SA). She also holds a BSc degree in Mathematics and Chemistry, and a BSc Honours degree in Mathematics which were both obtained at Rhodes University in the years 2013 and 2014 respectively.