Seth Blumberg, MD, PhD
Stochasticity - friend or foe?Thursday 29 June, 19:00 – 20:00
Abstract: The transmission of infectious diseases is inherently stochastic. Individual transmission events never occur with certainty, and some individuals spread more infections than others. This talk will explore mechanisms that yield this heterogeneity in disease transmission, and the implications for the effectiveness of control interventions. Various modelling approaches including branching processes, Markov models, and ensemble forecasting will be utilized. Implications for a variety of diseases will be presented including measles, MRSA, COVID and trachoma (as time permits!). The overarching theme will be that stochasticity makes it hard to forecast infectious disease transmission, but inclusion of stochastic effects in models provides opportunities for better understanding of disease spread and for enhancing disease control.
About: Seth enjoys developing mathematical and computational models of infectious diseases. He is particularly interested in how transmission heterogeneity affects the risk of disease emergence, and impacts the effectiveness of disease elimination efforts. Diseases of particular interest include MPOX, trachoma, COVID, and antimicrobial resistant infections. He also enjoys attending on hospital wards at the UCSF Medical Center.